In the month since writing my last column the UK has effectively changed its government with a new Prime Minister and a complete overhaul of the cabinet. I’ve noted before how the continual changing of ministers alters both policy priorities and implementation and as a result does nothing to help business planning. However, so far, the new leadership at least seems more pragmatic and has been making some reassuring comments. In my column last October, I commented on the upcoming budget and how continued speculation over tax increases was undermining confidence, impacting investment and as a result our members were finding their projects put on hold or delayed. It was encouraging to see that our new Chancellor agrees with this sentiment and has criticised his predecessor for creating this pessimism which “eroded our own prosperity”.
In last month’s column, I also noted that I remain optimistic for the future and at last there does seem to be an improving market out there with more projects coming through and these are not just data centres. A study of recent PMI indices shows that optimism within the UK construction sector has turned sharply for the better with stronger customer demand and improving financial conditions. Unfortunately, this is not also the case within Ireland where the indices have gone back slightly over the same period, but in contrast the PMI here has been consistently higher over the past year.
The UK manufacturing sector has now shown increases in output for the last four months and the service sector is also finally on the rise. This is all good news and should have a positive impact on the workload of our members over the coming months. However, it is also interesting to see how various online articles put very different spins on the interpretation of the same data. Most reviewers note how positive these indices are, especially when you consider the chaos caused by tariffs and the knock-on effects of war in the Middle-East. In contrast, others chose to concentrate on the fact that last month’s figures were down slightly and took this as an indication that there could yet be more trouble ahead. This demonstrates that while we may both be standing in the same place, if we look in two different directions the road away will appear quite different.
We are now also a couple of months into the new steel tariffs regime and the BCSA must remain vigilant for any negative developments. When it appears that at last the construction market is expanding, we must ensure that any associated increase in structural steel market size is to the benefit of our members and does not just encourage an increase in offshore fabrication driven by the ability to import tariff-free fabricated structural steel.
To this end, the BCSA has requested the support of members in providing as much evidence and data as possible regarding the impact of the new quotas and tariffs and please help in any way you can. If and when we find evidence that the new regime is harming the domestic market it will be vital that the data is definitive and compelling if we are to convince government to change direction. Following continued lobbying, the new Government has already confirmed that evidence of harm is required if we are to see action.
It is an unfortunate truth that given the chance, even good news like the latest PMI figures can be interpreted in different ways and as a wise man once said, “there are lies, damned lies and statistics”.
Statistical truth
In the month since writing my last column the UK has effectively changed its government with a new Prime Minister and a complete overhaul of the cabinet. I’ve noted before how the continual changing of ministers alters both policy priorities and implementation and as a result does nothing to help business planning. However, so far, the new leadership at least seems more pragmatic and has been making some reassuring comments. In my column last October, I commented on the upcoming budget and how continued speculation over tax increases was undermining confidence, impacting investment and as a result our members were finding their projects put on hold or delayed. It was encouraging to see that our new Chancellor agrees with this sentiment and has criticised his predecessor for creating this pessimism which “eroded our own prosperity”.
In last month’s column, I also noted that I remain optimistic for the future and at last there does seem to be an improving market out there with more projects coming through and these are not just data centres. A study of recent PMI indices shows that optimism within the UK construction sector has turned sharply for the better with stronger customer demand and improving financial conditions. Unfortunately, this is not also the case within Ireland where the indices have gone back slightly over the same period, but in contrast the PMI here has been consistently higher over the past year.
The UK manufacturing sector has now shown increases in output for the last four months and the service sector is also finally on the rise. This is all good news and should have a positive impact on the workload of our members over the coming months. However, it is also interesting to see how various online articles put very different spins on the interpretation of the same data. Most reviewers note how positive these indices are, especially when you consider the chaos caused by tariffs and the knock-on effects of war in the Middle-East. In contrast, others chose to concentrate on the fact that last month’s figures were down slightly and took this as an indication that there could yet be more trouble ahead. This demonstrates that while we may both be standing in the same place, if we look in two different directions the road away will appear quite different.
We are now also a couple of months into the new steel tariffs regime and the BCSA must remain vigilant for any negative developments. When it appears that at last the construction market is expanding, we must ensure that any associated increase in structural steel market size is to the benefit of our members and does not just encourage an increase in offshore fabrication driven by the ability to import tariff-free fabricated structural steel.
To this end, the BCSA has requested the support of members in providing as much evidence and data as possible regarding the impact of the new quotas and tariffs and please help in any way you can. If and when we find evidence that the new regime is harming the domestic market it will be vital that the data is definitive and compelling if we are to convince government to change direction. Following continued lobbying, the new Government has already confirmed that evidence of harm is required if we are to see action.
It is an unfortunate truth that given the chance, even good news like the latest PMI figures can be interpreted in different ways and as a wise man once said, “there are lies, damned lies and statistics”.